Of the five states that went to the polls in February and March, Uttar Pradesh and Punjab grabbed the maximum attention because the elections were being held in the wake of the repeal of the farm laws, and Punjab, Haryana and Western UP constituted the heartland of the historic farmers’ movement that forced Narendra Modi to repeal these laws. The results show that while the farmers’ movement propelled AAP, a party which had just extended moral support to the movement, to a sweeping victory in Punjab, the BJP managed to contain the impact of the movement in Uttar Pradesh to limit its losses to a moderate level. Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur, the other three states, all BJP-ruled, had their own stories, and together the elections in these five states were seen to be a crucial step in the run-up to the big battle of 2024.
By retaining power in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur, the BJP can of course claim to have won this round quite comfortably, but a closer look would reveal the accumulating popular discontent against the Modi regime and BJP-led state governments and the quest for an effective opposition and political alternative. In Uttarakhand, aware of the popular mood the BJP itself had replaced the Chief Minister twice and yet the incumbent CM lost the poll even though the BJP managed to secure a two-thirds majority, thanks to the weaknesses of the Congress. Goa too was expected to elect a non-BJP government but a divided opposition paved the way for yet another BJP term. But in spite of the BJP’s clean sweep in this round, there are clearly gains, and of course lessons, galore for the opposition and especially the forces of people’s movement on the ground.
Before we take a closer look at the UP election results, we should surely look at the widespread irregularities marking the elections in the state. This was clearly one of India’s most unequal elections with the BJP making a total mockery of the election code with hateful speeches and massive misuse of the state machinery and the Election Commission remaining just a mute spectator. Then there are disturbing reports of strong room violations giving rise to serious apprehensions of EVM tampering or replacement, allegations that the Election Commission and the Supreme Court must address to save the credibility of the very electoral process. But knowing the BJP and the weak state of India’s institutions, these irregularities are only to be expected and the answer lies in making people’s mobilisation on the ground powerful enough to overcome these irregularities or render them ineffective, if not impossible.
Several seats in Uttar Pradesh have been decided by narrow margins. The BJP and its allies have won thirty one seats by a margin of less than 5,000 votes, seven of them by even less than 500 votes. We should however also remember that the BJP has also lost 21 seats by narrow margins to the SP. Given these narrow margins, votes polled by parties like the AIMIM and BSP have been crucial in shaping the final outcome in many of these seats. The AIMIM, which had contested 38 seats in 2017, fielded 95 candidates this time, and votes polled by AIMIM candidates spoiled the winning chances of the SP-RLD combine in at least seven seats. The BSP vote share dropped by nearly ten percent, and by all indications, the lion’s share of this loss for the BSP became the BJP’s direct gain. The BSP campaign was directed primarily against the SP and even after its worst ever performance, Mayawati has effectively been blaming Muslims for deserting her party rather than introspecting for her party’s failure to take on the BJP after five years of cruel Yogi raj and increased atrocities against dalits.
The SP-RLD combine of course benefited significantly from the popular discontent against the Yogi Aditynanth government, especially the farmers’ anger in the wake of the Lakhimpur massacre and the youth unrest over unemployment. It is significant that the farmers’ movement blunted the edge of communal polarisation in the Muzaffarnagar-Shamli region, defeating some of the worst orchestrators of the 2013 anti-Muslim violence. But for much of the last five years, especially when the people were reeling under the dual blows of the pandemic and lockdown, there was little presence of the opposition on the ground. The BJP’s ‘beneficiary politics’ and the system being developed to turn ‘beneficiaries’ of welfare schemes into captive voters for the BJP pose an added challenge. This ‘bonded voter’ system calls for a vigorous counter mobilisation and resistance among the rural poor with special emphasis on developing rural youth and women as pillars for the politics of social transformation. This is perhaps the most important lesson of these polls for the Left movement in the country.
The most stunning results in the elections have come from Punjab. Since AAP’s emergence in 2012, Punjab has all along been a conducive ground for the new party. In the 2014 LS elections, it had managed to win as many as four seats from Punjab even though the tally dropped to one five years later. In 2017, AAP had emerged as a significant third force in Punjab after the Congress and the Akali Dal. Ten of the twenty MLAs who had won in 2017 had left the AAP and the party could hardly be seen playing the role of an active opposition party in the state. But with aspirations aroused by the AAP’s delivery in Delhi in terms of reduced electricity and water bills and improvement in the quality of government schools and the projection of Bhagwant Mann as the CM, Punjab has chosen to say goodbye to the Congress-Akali domination and welcome AAP with a huge mandate. Significantly, attempts made by a section of farmer leaders to join the electoral fray failed to evoke any popular support.
The Punjab mandate has major ramifications for AAP and for the future of Indian politics. In Delhi, AAP has basically been articulating a politics of municipal governance within a centre-right soft Hindutva framework. It stayed away from the powerful movements of students, citizens and farmers that have rocked Delhi in recent years and even refused to raise its voice for peace and justice in the face of the BJP’s aggressive campaign of communal violence and state repression that resulted in large-scale loss of lives and livelihood and imprisoned dozens of activists and innocent citizens on fabricated charges. Punjab will be a different reality check for AAP. It is not just a full state, it has quite a different political temperament and has been in the forefront of the developing anti-fascist resistance whether through the anti-corporate farmers’ movement or mass opposition to the scrapping of Article 370 or assault on federalism and the Constitution.
AAP has chosen to begin its term in Punjab by loudly invoking the legacies of Bhagat Singh and Ambedkar, with the cabinet being sworn in in Khatkar Kalan, the birthplace of Bhagat Singh. The experience of the AAP government in Punjab will clearly have major implications for the AAP’s political future. Alongside the rise of the AAP, Punjab has also witnessed a disturbing growth of the BJP. Freed from the compulsion of playing second fiddle to a dominant Akali Dal, the BJP will try to exploit the new situation to the hilt to strengthen its presence and advance its agenda in Punjab. The Left in Punjab, the real heirs to the progressive legacies of Bhagat Singh and Ambedkar will have to rise to the occasion to champion the aspirations of the people of Punjab for a progressive shift in politics and governance. And across India, opposition forces will have to accelerate the preparations for 2024 in the light of the lessons of these Assembly elections.
