“Normalcy, normalcy. It sounds obscene when one realises it is built on seventy thousand corpses. The peace of the graveyard, the normalcy of death gives way to.”
- Agha Shahid Ali
Voting in Desperation
Ever since the abrogation of Article 370 and 35-A in 2019, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led government of India and the mainstream media have gone to great lengths to justify the move. It’s in the best interests of the Kashmiris, claims the patronising politicians and opinion-makers – saviours of the allegedly infantile Kashmiri Muslims swayed by Pakistan, Islamists and militants. The recently concluded Assembly elections are being projected as a decisive milestone in the return to normalcy.
The BJP got a substantial number of seats (27 out of 90, all of which were in Jammu and none in Kashmir), allowing its leaders to claim that the state had accepted both the abrogation and the party which spearheaded it. The actual story is different. Given the amount of power the union government has accumulated in the state since 2019, the BJP’s electoral defeat is a statement of rejection by the people, especially of Kashmir. The National Conference (NC) – Congress coalition, headed by Omar Abdullah – formed the government with 49 seats.
The entry of the traditional “separatists” – the Jamaat-e-Islami – into the electoral fold buttressed the government’s normalcy claims. Their electoral performance was muted and uneventful. For their supporters, this was a desperate move to prevent complete annihilation of their political voice rather than a meaningful move towards national integration. The elections indeed witnessed a decent participation. 63.88% of the people voted. This was the highest turnout since 1987 (74.9%), which was also the last time that Jamaat-e-Islami participated in the elections.
The so-called free and fair polls hid a deeper reality. For a lot of people, participation in these polls were not optional. It was almost compulsory in order to avert the suspicious gaze of the Union government, and to ensure that their political opinion at least counted for something despite severely curtailed powers of the Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) Assembly.
Curtailed Powers of the Assembly
The Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act, 2019 had stripped the state of a political voice by converting Jammu and Kashmir into a union territory (with legislature) and Ladakh into one without a legislature. With severely curtailed powers, the elected Assembly of J&K is barely capable of governing effectively.
The Reorganisation Act of 2019 gave the New Delhi appointed Lieutenant Governor (LG) a much bigger role compared with the Assembly. The LG now has wide-ranging powers over public orders, police, the bureaucracy, the anti-corruption bureau, and in other spheres. There is little check on the discretionary powers of the LG. The LG’s predominance over the Assembly has been outlined in two key provisions.
First, Section 32 of the Act, which deals with the extent of legislative power of the Assembly, states that “subject to the provisions of this Act, the Legislative Assembly may make laws for the whole or any part of the Union territory of Jammu and Kashmir with respect to any of the matters enumerated in the State List except the subjects mentioned at entries 1 and 2, namely “Public Order” and “Police” respectively or the Concurrent List in the Seventh Schedule to the Constitution of India in so far as any such matter is applicable in relation to the Union territories.” States, on the other hand, can legislate on subjects in the Concurrent List, to the extent that such a law is not repugnant or contrary to the central law on the issue.
Second, Section 36, which deals with special provisions as to financial Bills. This provision states that a Bill or amendment “shall not be introduced into, or moved in, the Legislative Assembly except on the recommendation of the Lieutenant Governor”, if such Bill deals with, among other aspects, “the amendment of the law with respect to any financial obligations undertaken or to be undertaken by the Government of the Union territory…”. This provision has wide import since virtually every policy decision could create a financial obligation for the Union Territory.
New Political Dynamics
Under such extraordinary circumstances, the elections (to the Lok Sabha earlier in the year and now to the state assembly) have thrown up fresh political dynamics.
In the run up to the Lok Sabha elections, several new parties emerged, e.g. the Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP) led by Ghulam Nabi Azad, and the Apni Party (AP) led by Altaf Bukhari, which split from the Congress and the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) respectively. The People’s Conference led by Sajad Lone, along with these parties, were deemed as proxies or the “B teams” of BJP by the people, because of their apparent closeness with the union government and their willingness to form alliances with the BJP.
The chaos and confusion created due to the introduction of these “proxies” filled the air with extreme mistrust and uncertainty during the Lok Sabha elections. While this initially helped the NC in consolidating its voter base and cadres against a fractured opposition, the sudden and unprecedented candidature of Engineer Sheikh Abdul Rasheed caught the NC and Omar Abdullah unprepared.
As questionable as the sudden rise and social media campaign of Sheikh Abdul Rasheed was, his victory over Omar Abdullah on an important seat was significant. A Kashmiri existing on the margins of mainstream politics and someone who had been in jail because of the charges of separatism represented the emotions on the ground better than an established NC leader and former Chief Minister.
Defeats during the parliamentary elections proved a set-back to many small parties and independent candidates. A rift emerged between the PC and AP which eventually led to a more fragmented performance of these parties. The NC took advantage of the situation to emerge as the single largest force in the state Assembly elections after a period of around 20 years.
While the Assembly elections reflected a mass rejection of the BJP in Muslim dominated Kashmir, it threw up the BJP as an important force in Hindu dominated Jammu. This presents the disturbing possibility of strong religious polarisation and tensions between the two regions. Notably, most of the recent violence has been witnessed in Jammu rather than Kashmir. The people of J&K must guard against the mischievous designs of the BJP to hold sway over Jammu and isolate Kashmir.
The Congress failed to keep the BJP in check in Jammu. The Congress had contested a total of 32 seats in J&K, out of which it was only able to secure only 6 seats, out of which only 1 was in Jammu. 5 of these 6 seats were from Kashmir, indicating that their victory was a vote in favour of forces against the BJP instead of being a testament to the Congress as such.
A State Under Siege
Those who have bought into the narrative of normalcy surrounding the Assembly elections have mistaken the calm of fear as the peace of tranquillity. In the weeks following the abrogation of Article 370, around 5000 people were arrested in Jammu and Kashmir, according to Home Ministry reports. The actual figures, likely to be much higher, remain unknown. Kashmiri mainstream leaders, including former allies of the BJP have been declared as “separatists” and the agents of Pakistan.
The government claimed that violence has disappeared from the region. Since 2021, there have been 33 militant-related attacks in Jammu, according to official data. In 2024 alone, the region has seen eight attacks, in which 11 soldiers have been killed and 18 injured. Civilian deaths in Jammu in the first six months of this year were 12, the same number as the whole of 2023.
State repression and surveillance has reached unprecedented levels. People are being regularly imprisoned under the Unlawful Activities Prevention Act (UAPA), government employees’ right to protest has been officially scrapped, and the people have been subjected to a prolonged internet blockade and internet monitoring.
The development of Jammu and Kashmir is in fact the development of big corporations. The Jammu and Kashmir Land Allotment Policy (2021-30) has made it easier for the corporates to take over lands in the name of business and development. The ongoing protest by the Kargil Democratic Alliance and the Leh Apex body is a direct response to this takeover by the corporates.
In Jammu alone 38,000 trees of the Raika Forest were approved for being chopped off for the construction of a new High Court complex: a recipe for environmental degradation and mass displacement. The “Save Raika Forest” movement began in Jammu in 2021 in response to this, and it has been continuing ever since. Several climate change activists have been repeatedly detained by the government in an attempt to quash the movement.
Unemployment is at its highest in decades (18.3% as per government data, which is more than double the national figure of 8%), although tourism has significantly grown. The growth of tourism has been projected as a marker of “safety” and integration with India, and the government wants to make it the core plank of the region’s economy. This will substantially curtain the region’s economic independence for survival.
Jammu and Kashmir clearly remain a state under siege. Democratic forces must expose this façade of normalcy and listen to the voices of the people of the region – both within the Assembly and outside.
